The United States and it's collaborative allies need a herculean effort such as the Manhattan Project to win the Super Artificial Intelligence race. Anything less defaults to a position of defeat and enslavement. Vladimir Putin of Russia clearly puts this into perspective in 2017 when he said in absolute terms, "Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”
The Russian president warned that artificial intelligence offers ‘colossal opportunities’ as well as dangers
By James Vincent Sep 4, 2017 https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/4/16251 ... -the-world
Russian president Vladimir Putin has joined the war of words concerning the international race to develop artificial intelligence. Speaking to students last Friday, Putin predicted that whichever country leads the way in AI research will come to dominate global affairs.
“Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind,” said Putin, reports RT. “It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”
Most likely the leaders of the free world already have such a project underway or at least I would hope this is the case. Like the Manhattan Project, secrecy and security are paramount. Of course our enemies probably have their own similar projects underway just like the Germans had during WWII to produce their own nuclear bomb.
Doctor A in his, "Guide To Save Humanity," shows his tacit support for such a grand scale endeavor,
7) Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) goes beyond just the mimicking of human thought and creates a world in which a computer's cognitive ability is superior to a human's. It is well acknowledged by experts that whoever creates this system first will control all the other advanced computer systems and hence the world. This is because who ever reaches ASI first will have an extreme advantage over all other systems given the exponential nature of their existence.
This obviously lends itself to many secret research projects working towards this goal around the world. We must support the United States in its endeavor to become the first to finish this race. At least, even though secret, congressional oversight will be utilized and from my view there is less likely the chance of a tyrannical government producing a SAI tyrannical computer.
Right now the race for AI supremacy is too close for my liking.
China and the U.S. lead the world in the global competition to dominate artificial intelligence, a study by the UN World Intellectual Property Organization concluded. But China has set a goal to become the dominant player by 2030.
White House Technology Czar Insists US Remains Tops in A.I.
Michael Kratsios, of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, claims the United States has the edge on China on AI development.
Bloomberg | Sep 10, 2019 https://www.industryweek.com/technology ... ns-tops-ai
The nation’s chief technology officer insisted that the U.S. remains the global leader in artificial intelligence, amid a pitched battle with China to attain dominance.
The “United States holds the competitive edge in this field,” said Michael Kratsios, who is also deputy assistant to the president at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, in a speech at a Center for Data Innovation event in Washington on Tuesday.
As part of his presentation, he announced a supplemental report to the president’s 2020 fiscal year budget that included nearly $1 billion for non-defense research and development on AI. That compares to 2016, when the federal government spent $1 billion on research and development for AI -- including money spent on defense, he said.
While noting that China was trying to catch up, Kratsios said, “Our collective investments, from the federal government and the private sector, the success of our scholars and our innovators, and the unsurpassed quality of our business and academic institutions remain unmatched.”
Somehow knowing we just have a "competitive edge" in the field gives me the willies and much more needs to be done.
"The Manhattan Project was a research and development undertaking during World War II that produced the first nuclear weapons. It was led by the United States with the support of the United Kingdom and Canada. From 1942 to 1946, the project was under the direction of Major General Leslie Groves of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Nuclear physicist Robert Oppenheimer was the director of the Los Alamos Laboratory that designed the actual bombs. The Army component of the project was designated the Manhattan District; "Manhattan" gradually superseded the official codename, Development of Substitute Materials, for the entire project. Along the way, the project absorbed its earlier British counterpart, Tube Alloys.
The Manhattan Project began modestly in 1939, but grew to employ more than 130,000 people and cost nearly US$2 billion (about $23 billion in 2018 dollars). Over 90% of the cost was for building factories and to produce fissile material, with less than 10% for development and production of the weapons. Research and production took place at more than 30 sites across the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada."
If a project to produce SAI first on the same scope and scale as the Manhattan Project was to be undertaken it would cost in 2018 dollars at least $23 billion as noted above. This is about the cost of two modern day Ford Class aircraft carriers. A Google search finds the following information on the current Defense Departments budget, "The budget funds four branches of the U.S. military: the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, and Air Force. For Fiscal Year 2019 (FY2019), the Department of Defense' budget authority is approximately $693,058,000,000." A Manhattan style project would cost about 3.3% of this entire yearly budget. Compared to the trillions of dollars we spent on Middle East wars since the attack on 9/11, this is a cake walk.
As a "bugologist" by profession, I find Jessica's post #43 aptly put,
However, there can (typically) only be one queen bee in a hive, so when the new queens hatch they must kill their competitors. A newly hatched queen will sting her unhatched rivals, killing them while they are still in their cells.
This much we do know, who ever reaches super-AI first will have an extreme advantage over all other systems given the exponential nature of their existence. Perhaps they will not be so much different from the queen bees.